Morgan Stanley warns that India avoiding Russian crude could lower Reliance's FY27 earnings by about 4%, cushioned by product margins and refinery use.

• Higher diesel, gasoline margins, and refinery utilization could offset part of the crude price impact, keeping Reliance resilient amid global supply tightness.
• Indian refiners and consumer firms may see overall earnings drop 5-12%, while state fuel retailers like HPCL benefit from private crude sourcing.
• Global refining margins are expected to remain high through 2027 due to underinvestment, capacity delays, and reduced Russian fuel exports, supporting Indian refiners.